Predictions: HMD Global could easily have shipped between 4.2 and 5.4 million smartphones in Q42017

Happy New Year everyone! The Q4 is over and it is always interesting to check out how HMD Global did and how many bellowed Nokia smartphones shipped. Q3 numbers aren’t officially confirmed but extrapolated data from Counterpoint and IDC report gave us prediction of 2.8 million smartphones shipped and around 13.5 million feature phones by HMD Global. This could be rather conservative numbers, but it is still great result of the Startup company that launched its products in February 2017, and started shipping them much later.

It is maybe to early to speak about the Q4 results but Tomi Ahonen gave his preliminary estimates. Even though many people find Ahonen a bit extraordinary as an analyst, many of his estimates about Nokia were correct and based on plausible data and predictions. On his blog Ahonen analyzed so far known info and estimated that HMD could have shipped somewhere between conservative 4.2 and pumped up 5.4 million devices. The number variates significantly because different predictions were taken into consideration, for example if you follow linear growth based on previous extrapolated data or take into consideration of usual 50% increase of sales in Q4 which is significantly helped by Christmas shopping mania during the holidays.

The results per each quarter of 2017 would go like this:

  • Q1 – 0.1 million smartphones
  • Q2 – 1.4 million smartphones
  • Q3 – 2.8 million smartphones
  • Q4 – 4.2 – 5.4  (4.8 mean) million smartphones.

Based on this data, HMD could have easily shipped 9.1 million smartphones in the 2017 which would give Nokia brand a 1.2% market share of smartphones globally.

These are just estimates but HMD and Nokia will have great times ahead and Nokia brand could really be in the top five brands in the next 3 years.