Predictions: HMD Global could easily have shipped between 4.2 and 5.4 million smartphones in Q42017

Happy New Year everyone! The Q4 is over and it is always interesting to check out how HMD Global did and how many bellowed Nokia smartphones shipped. Q3 numbers aren’t officially confirmed but extrapolated data from Counterpoint and IDC report gave us prediction of 2.8 million smartphones shipped and around 13.5 million feature phones by HMD Global. This could be rather conservative numbers, but it is still great result of the Startup company that launched its products in February 2017, and started shipping them much later.

It is maybe to early to speak about the Q4 results but Tomi Ahonen gave his preliminary estimates. Even though many people find Ahonen a bit extraordinary as an analyst, many of his estimates about Nokia were correct and based on plausible data and predictions. On his blog Ahonen analyzed so far known info and estimated that HMD could have shipped somewhere between conservative 4.2 and pumped up 5.4 million devices. The number variates significantly because different predictions were taken into consideration, for example if you follow linear growth based on previous extrapolated data or take into consideration of usual 50% increase of sales in Q4 which is significantly helped by Christmas shopping mania during the holidays.

The results per each quarter of 2017 would go like this:

  • Q1 – 0.1 million smartphones
  • Q2 – 1.4 million smartphones
  • Q3 – 2.8 million smartphones
  • Q4 – 4.2 – 5.4  (4.8 mean) million smartphones.

Based on this data, HMD could have easily shipped 9.1 million smartphones in the 2017 which would give Nokia brand a 1.2% market share of smartphones globally.

These are just estimates but HMD and Nokia will have great times ahead and Nokia brand could really be in the top five brands in the next 3 years.

  • johala02

    Will se how it goes in 2018. Nokia 3, 5 and 6 was out much later to the market than expected.
    (Maybe thats why they fired Arto Nummela)

    But I hope HMD Global in the future are able to deliver the devices much faster.

    • they fired Arto because of Nokia 8 was late, and probably because bad logistics of the first Nokia devices.

      • Deep Shekhar

        Are you sure about the reason behind Arto’s departure?

        • It’s just a theory. No evidence for that

          • haha123

            Arto’s departure was never explained and in an interview a HMD executive said it’s a private matter that they won’t say.

          • Private matter between Arto and the board, to be precise (if I remember correctly).

          • That is the polite way to say he messed up 🙂

          • haha123

            Then again I think it would’ve been unfair to dismiss him so quickly for one mistake. And I doubt it’s all his fault that it was delayed.

  • Stinger

    1% market share in the first year is amazing. Especially considering that the phones were late to market. Nokia and HMD will have another amazing year in 2018.

  • Rob Beijendorf

    I’m not sure you can extrapolate a sales curve like that. The sales usually taper off after the first one or two months a phone has been on sale, and they didn’t release any new phone in Q4. In other words, the sales should be down a bit in Q4.

    HMD are doing amazing, but this seems a bit too optimistic.

    • In Q4 they announce the 2 and 7 (for China), and the 8 came to more markets worldwide. Don’t want to speculate about the numbers, but I think the sales should be higher than q3. We will see 🙂